The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle
Alisdair McKay, Ricardo Reis
Econometrica, vol. 84, 2016, p. 141-194.

The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions
Alisdair McKay, Ricardo Reis
Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55, 2008, p. 738-751.